Strong El Niño predicted for 2015-2016
Several US and national climate research groups are predicting an unusually strong El Niño event to occur this year, based on current very warm conditions in the tropical Pacific (above, SST anomalies) and associated conditions across and deep in the Pacific ocean. In fact, this year's event may equal or surpass the strongest events on record that occurred in 1982-3 and 1997-8. Today's lecture covers more about what that means for global climate. This prediction has led to many catchy names - Godzilla, Bruce Lee (huh??) - but the event is no joke. It has the potential to ameliorate drought across the Southwest and has already been implicated in the unprecedented observation of three category-4 cyclones at one time in the tropical north Pacific. The El Niño event also puts us firmly on track to have the warmest year on record this year (again...).
The figure below compares this year's warming to 1997 (on the left) and shows the forecasted winter precipitation on the upper right. Break out the skis!
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